Sabtu, Mei 31, 2008

Amartya Sen tentang krisis harga pangan


Amartya Sen, pemenang hadiah Nobel ekonomi untuk penelitiannya tentang kemiskinan, juga khawatir tentang tren konversi bahan makanan menjadi etanol. Dari New York Times:
It is a tale of two peoples. In one version of the story, a country with a lot of poor people suddenly experiences fast economic expansion, but only half of the people share in the new prosperity. The favored ones spend a lot of their new income on food, and unless supply expands very quickly, prices shoot up. The rest of the poor now face higher food prices but no greater income, and begin to starve. Tragedies like this happen repeatedly in the world.
...
There is also a high-tech version of the tale of two peoples. Agricultural crops like corn and soybeans can be used for making ethanol for motor fuel. So the stomachs of the hungry must also compete with fuel tanks.

HT: Greg Mankiw.

Lihat juga posting ini untuk analisis teknis tentang (tidak efisiennya) etanol.

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Kamis, Desember 20, 2007

Hati-hati 'rayuan' etanol


Setahun lalu Presiden SBY menyatakan komitmennya untuk mengembangkan biofuel. Semoga waktu itu SBY tidak serius. Dari MIT Technology Review:
According to calculations done by Minnesota researchers, 54 percent of the total energy represented by a gallon of ethanol is offset by the energy required to process the fuel; another 24 percent is offset by the energy required to grow the corn. While about 25 percent more energy is squeezed out of the biofuel than is used to produce it, other fuels yield much bigger gains, says Stephen Polasky, a professor of ecological and environmental economics at Minnesota. Making etha­nol is "not a cheap process," he says. "From my perspective, the biggest problem [with corn ethanol] is just the straight-out economics and the costs. The energy input/output is not very good."

Dengan kata lain, lebih dari setengah energi etanol "terbuang" dalam proses pembuatannya. Dari sisi lingkungan hidup, etanol ternyata tidak terlalu banyak mengurangi emisi karbondioksida dibandingkan BBM.

Namun, salah satu risiko terpenting pengembangan produksi etanol adalah risiko terhadap harga pangan dunia yang perlahan meningkat. Masih dari artikel tersebut:
If corn-derived ethanol has had little impact on energy markets and greenhouse-gas emissions, however, its production could have repercussions throughout the agricultural markets. Not only are corn prices up, but so are soybean prices, because farmers planted fewer soybeans to make room for corn.

In the May/June 2007 issue of Foreign Affairs, C. Ford Runge, a professor of applied economics and law at Minnesota, cowrote an article titled "How Biofuels Could Starve the Poor," which argued that "the enormous volume of corn required by the ethanol industry is sending shock waves through the food system."

Tentang kenaikan harga pangan dunia, silakan lihat juga liputan The Economist ini.

Jika waktu itu SBY serius, ada baiknya dia menimbang ulang strategi energinya. Retorika pengembangan biofuel untuk memberantas kemiskinan itu keliru: orang miskin lebih butuh bahan pangan murah daripada energi alternatif yang, ternyata, toh mahal juga.

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